富士汇FXfish 2008.7.4操作建议
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="border: medium none ; margin: auto auto auto -48.6pt; width: 522pt; border-collapse: collapse;" width="696" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr style="height: 13.1pt; page-break-inside: avoid;"><td style="border-style: none none solid; border-color: rgb(236, 233, 216) rgb(236, 233, 216) white; border-width: medium medium 2.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: rgb(217, 217, 217) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 522pt; height: 13.1pt;" colspan="12" valign="top" width="696"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-indent: 77.5pt;"><font size="3"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">图表分析</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(221, 221, 221);" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><strong><font size="3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">图表分析</span><span style="color: blue;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></strong></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm -7.35pt 0pt 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US"><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"><img class="" alt="" src="http://newsart.gcict.com/userfiles/image/image001%28182%29.jpg" width="297" height="257"></o:lock></v:shapetype></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">欧罗兑美元四小时图上所见，由于受到非农数据影响下，导致汇价出现大幅下挫，更以一根大阴烛跌穿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10-25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线及上升轨，触及至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">-1.5710</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平跌势才暂且减缓，不过技术指标</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">RSI9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">PKS</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">亦显示表现疲弱跌至负值水平，因此，相信后市仍会有下跌需求，下方看</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5620</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">位置。</span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">英镑现阶段初显圆顶回吐形态走势，从四小时睇，目前汇价位于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9910</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平遭受</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线下穿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线呈压，令汇价以一根大阴烛跌破上升趋势线暂稳</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9825</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平。技术显示，指标</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">RSI9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">受阻逐步触及超卖区，估计汇价后市继续下跌机会较大，目标测试</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9700</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平。</span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美元兑日圆四小时图上，汇价沿着上升趋势线以盘整方式上行，至昨日因获得</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10-25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线承接支持下，令汇价急速上行并突破延伸阻力线，一度升至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">-106.90</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">位置，而技术分析上指标</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">MACD</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上行动力逐渐加强，已</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">RSI9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">回升正值水平，预计后市汇价整体上升观点维持不变，目标将测试前期整理区支撑位</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">107.35</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平。</span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">四小时图上所见，美元兑瑞士于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">B</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">区域虽见以下降通道发展运行，但跌幅见至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0130</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平获得支持，令其汇价出现逆转性快速反弹，并以一根大阳烛快速上穿</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10-25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">均线及通道，最高去至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0260</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">位置，而技术上指标</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">RSI9</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">以及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">PKS</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">突破中线表现向好，这意味着汇价上行动力将会持续，有望重返</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">A</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">区域运行，首要阻力为区间分水岭</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0300</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平。</span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><strong><font size="3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">市场回顾</span><span style="color: blue;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></strong></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; text-indent: 21.75pt; text-align: left;" align="left"><strong><font size="3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">市场回顾本时段</span><span style="color: blue;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0.9pt 0pt 0cm; text-indent: 21.75pt; text-align: left;" align="left"><font size="3"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">周四纽约时段，欧洲股市持稳反弹，提振市场风险偏好情绪，套息交易活跃，美元兑日元和瑞郎也上扬触及</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">106.92</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0251</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">的时段高点。欧洲央行时段内宣布加息</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">个基点至</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.25%</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">，同时特里谢表明加息目的是为了稳定通胀预期，并暗示加息或将停止，此举引发欧元大幅回落，盘中跌幅一度逾</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">150</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">点。美元指数也受到欧元走软提振，触底反弹，早盘一度承压触及</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">72.01</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">的时段低点，午盘过后逐渐反弹至</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">72.64</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">的高点。英镑基本呈震荡下行走势。盘中受到欧元大幅走软打压，一路下滑触及</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9810</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">的时段低点，不过受交叉盘套息资金流的一定支持，之后守稳该位并略微反弹。澳元也受到金价走软打压，一度跌落至</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.96</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">下方，而原油价格依然维持在</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">144</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">美元</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">桶上方的记录高位。美国周四公布的数据显示，美国</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">月非农就业人数减少</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.2</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">万，初值减少</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.9</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">万；美国至</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">月</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">28</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">日当周初请失业金人数</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">40.4</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">万，前值</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">38.4</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">万，预期</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">38.5</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">万；美国</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">月失业率为</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5.5%</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">，预期</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5.4%</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">，数据基本符合市场预期，对汇市影响有限。欧洲央行行长特里谢周四表示，根据对经济与货币的分析，欧洲央行今日决定加息</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体;">个基点。该决定旨在避免出现第二轮通胀效应，对抗通胀风险，以维护中期物价稳定，同时也暗示了欧洲央行进一步加息的预期可能停止，引起欧元大幅走软。</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><strong><font size="3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">昨日价位</span><span style="color: blue;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></strong></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><strong><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;"><font size="3">市场展望</font></span></strong></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><strong><font size="3"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 宋体;">市场展望</span><span style="color: blue;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></strong></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 31.5pt; text-indent: -31.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">欧元：欧元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美元周四欧市开盘于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5885</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近，早盘小幅上冲触及两个多月来高点</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5900</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">水平，随着逐渐回落。盘中欧洲央行宣布加息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">个基点至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.25%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，以及美国公布</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月非农就业减少</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6.2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">万人，与市场此前预期相符，对汇价影响有限。不过，特里谢表示加息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">个基点能够稳定通胀预期，暗示欧洲央行可能结束加息，导致欧元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美元开始大幅下滑，触及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5736</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的时段低点。技术面，汇价大幅回落至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5730</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近水平，几乎回吐本周全部涨幅，导致下行风险进一步加剧。汇价只有重新夺回</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5770/80</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">才能缓解下行压力，站稳</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5840/50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上方才有望重拾上行动能，进一步回撤支撑见于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5730</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.5675</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></font></p>
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<td style="border-style: none none solid; border-color: rgb(236, 233, 216) rgb(236, 233, 216) white; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 459pt; height: 14.3pt;" colspan="11" valign="top" width="612">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 31.5pt; text-indent: -31.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">英镑：英镑</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">美元周四欧市开盘于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9925</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近，汇价基本呈震荡下行走势。盘中受到欧元大幅走软打压，一路下滑触及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9810</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的时段低点，不过受交叉盘套息资金流的一定支持，之后守稳该位并略微反弹。技术面，尽管汇价日内滑落，但是仍初期</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">07</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月以来的下降趋势线上方，总体仍有利于多方。不过汇价围绕</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线水平附近筑顶的迹象显露，有必要警惕汇价回落风险。若汇价站稳</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9850</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上方则有望再度测试</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.0000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">上方水平。进一步支撑见于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9800</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.9770/80</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，反弹阻力位于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.0010</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.0045</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></font></p>
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<td style="border-style: none none solid; border-color: rgb(236, 233, 216) rgb(236, 233, 216) white; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 459pt; height: 9.8pt;" colspan="11" valign="top" width="612">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 31.5pt; text-indent: -31.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日元：美元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日元周四欧市开盘于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">105.97</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近，汇价基本呈震荡上行走势。尽管美国就业据不如预期，曾一度打压汇价下探至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">105.95</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，但是随着欧元的大幅走软，加之股市上扬提振套息交易，汇价逐渐反弹至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">106.50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">附近。技术面，日线图显示，继本周初下探</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线企稳，走出</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&quot;</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">双针探底</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&quot;</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">K</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">线组合以后，美元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日元周三延续了短线反弹走势，但汇价上破</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线后遇阻回落，表明</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10&nbsp;</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线以及</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线仍对汇价构成较强了反压，汇价短线弱势格局并未改变。后市汇价上方阻力见于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">106.75</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">107.00</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，下方支撑则位于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;105.00</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">104.45</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。</span></font></p>
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<td style="border-style: none none solid; border-color: rgb(236, 233, 216) rgb(236, 233, 216) white; border-width: medium medium 1pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; background: rgb(242, 242, 242) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 459pt; height: 13.1pt;" colspan="11" valign="top" width="612">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 31.5pt; text-indent: -31.5pt;"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">瑞郎：美元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">瑞郎纽约时段持续上扬，汇价突破了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0220/30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">区间的短线阻力，并触发其上方止损，一度上扬至时段新高</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0282</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。受</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0300</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">下方卖盘压制，短线汇价升势受阻。汇价周四高见</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0282</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，低见</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0112</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，日内振幅达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">170</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">点。瑞士统计局周四公布，瑞士</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">月消费者物价指数月率增长了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.2%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，年率增长了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.9%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，预期为月率增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.3%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">，年率增长</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3.0%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">。此数据表明瑞士通胀压力略微缓解，降低了瑞士央行的升息预期。有分析师指出，日线图显示，美元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">瑞郎周四在近期整理区间下端</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.0130</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">下方获得支撑强劲反弹，日</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">K</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">线拉出长阳线，一举突破了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线，扭转了短线的颓势。但汇价仍受制于</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">和</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">日均线空头排列的反压，技术面有利空方。</span></font></p></td></tr></tbody></table>
