富士汇FXfish 2008.6.20操作建议
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<P class=MsoNormal><STRONG><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">市场展望</SPAN></STRONG></P></TD></TR>
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<P class=MsoNormal><STRONG><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">市场展望</SPAN></STRONG></P></TD>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 31.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -31.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">欧元：</SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元纽约时段开于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5498</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">附近，汇价下探至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5471</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">后小幅反弹，午盘汇价上扬至时段高点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5513</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">后承压下行。尾盘汇价则围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5500</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">持续窄幅整理。日线图显示，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元周四上扬至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5843-1.5304</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">跌浪</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">回撤位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5587</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">附近遇阻回落，这表明汇价尚未有效扭转短线的弱势。汇价下探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线温和反弹，则表明短线下行空间有限。下行方面，若守稳</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5460</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">支撑，短线可能会持续介于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5460-1.5580</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">的狭窄区间内整理。若跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5460</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，空头目标可能再次指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线。上行方面，若有效突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5587</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，多头目标则可能指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.5840</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。</SPAN></P></TD></TR>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 31.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -31.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">英镑：</SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">英镑</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元周四开于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9579</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，收于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9719/21</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，日内波幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">点左右，上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>121</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">点，涨幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>0.61%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。日线图显示，英镑</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元周四收于略带上下影的大阳线，突破了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线的阻力。在连续守稳底部之后，多头终于暂时赢得上风，短期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线有望金叉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线，提供有力的下方支撑。不过，空头压力并未完全消退，汇价只有在先行突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线压制之后，再收复</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9850</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，才能明确新一轮的上行走势，否则做空动能随时可能反扑，将汇价带回波动走势。后市英镑</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元上方阻力位于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9800</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9880</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，下方支撑见于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9645</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9570</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。</SPAN></P></TD></TR>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 31.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -31.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日元：</SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日元纽约时段开于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>107.80</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">附近，受美国经济数据疲软拖累，汇价在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>108.10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">下方遇阻。午盘汇价则围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>108.00</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">持续窄幅整理，直至收盘。日线图显示，受制于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线和前期整理平台上端</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>108.60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">双重阻力的压制，美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日元周四一度跌破了本周整理区间的下端</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>107.60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，创出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">周新低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>107.43</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。目前汇价的回调低点不断下移，表明短线下行风险加大。技术指标方面，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>MACD</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">指标高位拐头向下，技术面开始有利空方。后市美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日元上方阻力见于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>108.70</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>109.60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，下方支撑则位于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>107.40</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>106.80</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">。</SPAN></P></TD></TR>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 31.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -31.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞郎：</SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞郎纽约时段持续上扬，目前汇价上扬至时段高点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.0473</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">附近。周四瑞士央行宣布维持基准利率在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>2.75%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">不变，令瑞郎承压。巴黎银行指出，目前驱动美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞郎的走势的依然是股市、债市，美债收益率的上扬趋势，令瑞郎走强并不被看好。该行认为，美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞郎回撤</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>1.0285-1.0300</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">区域将是买入的机会。日线图显示，美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">瑞郎周四下破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线强劲反弹，目前日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">线拉出下影中阳，令</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">日均线失而复得，这表明汇价短线下行空间有限，自</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9635</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">以来的中期反弹格局维持不变。</SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>
