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fxfishcom 2008-6-16 12:51

富士汇FXfish 2008.6.16操作建议

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图表分析<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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图表分析<O:P></O:P></TD>
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从日线图上，汇价因受制于双顶阻力1.5820水平压力之下，导致出现大幅下跌走势，并曾一度跌至前期支撑位1.5290跌势才暂且减缓，不过上方日均线呈现死亡交叉，以及指标RSI9急挫之50水平之下，.因此预计后市仍会有持续推低的压力，支撑睇1.5140，阻力1.5500。</TD>
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英镑日线图上显示，汇价曾多次上测下降通道上轴未有效后逐步作出回吐下滑，现时暂在1.95关口下方附近，而目前分析所见，10日线下穿25-50日线呈现死亡交叉打压，指标RSI9出现明显的下滑动力，这表明后市疲弱走势将会持续，下方目标看1.9350，阻力1.9600。</TD></TR>
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美元兑日元从图表所见，汇价自获得上升趋势线及上升轨支持，昨日升势再度成功升穿108关口防线，目前处于108.20水平附近，而技术上，日均线保持上升趋势发展，指标RSI9亦同样获得良好支持，预料后市上升力能依然持续，目标测试110关口，支撑位105.70。</TD>
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四小时图上显示，美元对瑞士自跌至强弱分界线获得上升趋势线承接，而带动汇价一度走出W形态走势，技术上日均线亦向上扩展呈支持，加上指标PKS显示获见超卖做出快速反弹，预测后市瑞士仍将继续呈上升走势。目标测试W顶部1.0620水平位置。</TD></TR>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P></TD>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
欧洲股市先抑后扬，市场套息情绪有所改善，美元兑日元和瑞郎一度攀升至108.37和1.0538的时段高点。美元指数开盘于73.90，早盘受到欧元疲弱提振震荡上扬，午盘过后受到美国5月通胀数据强劲支持，顺势上扬触及74.31的时段高点，余后小幅滑落。非美货币方面，欧元总体呈单边下行走势，盘中出击1.5304的逾一个月新低；英镑也表现疲软，盘中刷新4周新低1.9410；澳元也受到美元强势打压，下探至0.9334的低点；加元则基本维持区间内波动。初步计算结果显示，爱尔兰将对欧宪《里斯本条约》公投结果为反对，欧元/美元跌破1.5360关键支撑，引发多头止损和跟风卖盘，顺势下探至1.5304附近的时段低点。美国周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI月增0.6%，预期月增0.5%，年增4.2%，预期年增3.9%；美国5月核心CPI月增0.2%，年增2.3%，与预期一致，该数据支持美元走强，触及74.31的时段高点。
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昨日价位<O:P></O:P></TD>
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<O:P> </O:P></TD>
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市场展望</TD></TR>
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市场展望<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧元：欧元/美元周五欧市开盘于1.5410附近，汇价总体呈单边下行走势。汇价失守1.5360关键支撑，汇价跌势加剧。午盘受到美国5月通胀数据强劲影响，汇价再度承压，盘中触及1.5304的时段低点，余后回升至1.5350附近。技术面，欧元/美元有效跌破100日均线和20周均线所在位置1.5390/00区域支撑，短期走势十分沉重。若汇价不能重回1.54水平，空头目标将进一步指向前期下探低点1.5290，反弹初步阻力位于5日均线及10日均线所处的1.5500/30附近，重要阻力在30日均线及布林线中轨所处的1.5560/75区间。</TD></TR>
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英镑：英镑/美元周五欧市开盘于1.9430附近，早盘受到欧洲账户买盘支持，企稳上升至1.9489，随后汇价逐渐滑落。随着午盘美国公布的5月通胀数据强劲，汇价跌破此前低点，触及1.9412的4周新低，余后回升1.9460附近。技术面，汇价均线系统走势糟糕，日K线图技术指标看跌，不过受到超卖影响，有一定的反弹需求。进一步支撑位于1.9400关口，跌破将打破近来波动格局，并将下试1.9363，多条均线交汇于1.9630/70构成初步阻力。
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日元：美元/日元周五欧市开盘于108.00附近，汇价基本呈先扬后抑走势。早盘受到美元指数走强提振，一度上扬触及108.37的时段高点，但是欧洲股市走软打压风险偏好情绪，套息平仓令汇价承压下滑至108.20附近。技术面，美元/日元目前站稳前期高点106.40上方，进一步巩固前期涨幅。目前延自95.74以来的上升趋势线保持完好，中期反弹格局保持不变，且有可能向上进一步拓展。均线方面，5、10和20均线多头排列，技术面有利多方。后市汇价上方阻力见于109.00和109.96，下方支撑则位于107.40和106.60。
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瑞郎：美元/瑞郎纽约时段自1.0538的高点温和回落，收盘汇价下行至1.0490附近止跌企稳。日线图显示，美元/瑞郎突破了本周阻力1.05440，打开了短线上扬空间，且站上了100日均线上方。技术形态处于<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:CHMETCNV tcsc="1" numbertype="3" negative="False" hasspace="False" sourcevalue="1" unitname="升" w:st="on">一升</ST1:CHMETCNV>趋势，5日均线上穿10日线，9日RSI向穿50中线水平，料后市仍有进一步上试需求。短线首要阻力将参考前期高位阻力1.0607，下方支撑则下望1.0400。</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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