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fxfishcom 2008-5-28 10:21

富士汇FXfish 2008.5.28操作建议

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图表分析<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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图表分析<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图上显示，汇价上测高位双顶1.5820水平再次失败后，导致汇价大幅回落及一度跌破上升通道触及1.57关口位置，而技术指标RSI9表现疲弱已跌穿中线，加上10-25均线交叉下行，预料后市仍受制于压力中，下行走势将会持续，目标支撑位1.5570位置。<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图看得，汇价多次测试高位1.9855水平失败后，一周以来维持于1.97区域运行，而目前分析所见指标MACD红线已脱离影线逐渐呈下行趋势发展，加上10-25均线有掉头下行之意，预计后市以反复下行走势居多，并有望跌破1.97关口，下探50均线1.9670水平甚至1.96位置。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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美元兑日圆自获得上升轨支撑下，令汇价发动升势，并成功上破1.04关口水平，而四小时图分析所见，指标RSI9保持上升趋势，移动平均线亦同样上行发展，估计后市仍存在上升的空间，将有望再次上测试前期重要阻104.40水平，一旦突破后，则睇105关口。<O:P></O:P></TD>
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美元兑瑞士四小时图上显示，两星期以来的下跌走势见至底位1.0215获见支撑下，周一出现快速回升并突破下降通道见至1.03关口水平，技术上指标RSI9突破中线呈向好，加上短线承接汇价提供上行支持，因此相信后市仍有继续上行的需求，首要目标将测试50均线1.0370水平。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P></TD>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
周二纽约时段，欧系货币走势分化，英镑的表现优于欧元，欧元兑美元自1.5760跌至1.5690附近，英镑兑美元则由1.9728小幅回升至1.9760一线。美国新屋销售好于预期支持美元走高，同时商品价格全线重挫进一步引发美元反弹，令欧系货币雪上加霜。数据显示，美国4月新屋销售52.6万户，预期为52.0万户。同时，美联储官员耶伦和克罗兹纳指出，美国部分地区房市将于09年或今年年末开始见底，这表明旷日持久的信贷危机可能随着美国房市企稳而结束。NYMEX原油期货周二跌破了130.00美元/桶，现货金则跌至5个交易日来的新低903.50美元/盎司。受商品价格暴跌打压，澳元兑美元自0.9635下跌至0.9600下方，纽元兑美元则在0.7900上方遇阻。油价回落支持美股反弹，道指收盘上涨约70点，令美元兑日元收复104.00整数关口，美元兑瑞郎则上扬至1.0340左右。本时段，美元指数则由72.05上扬至72.36。关注：北京时间周三16:00欧元区3月经常帐20:30;美国4月耐用消费品订单 </TD></TR>
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昨日价位<O:P></O:P></TD>
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<O:P> </O:P></TD>
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市场展望</TD></TR>
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市场展望<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧元：欧元兑美元在油价扬升之际，上周企稳1.55水平，高见至1.5814。技术上突破1.57关口水准，令市场重新关注欧元或会再次回探上月触及之纪录高位。欧元兑美元一个月以前涨至1.6018美元的高位，于5月8日跌至1.5284后又踏上升途；当前须先为突破1.5830水平，该水准是4月末欧元下修走势开始的转拆点，亦为61.8%之反弹位置，而上周欧元高位亦正好在此区之前稍事回落，本周可望作为欧元能否进一步走高的警示讯号，破位后将直指1.59及1.60为重要关口。支持位则会先参考5天平均线1.5690水平，25天平均线1.56水平则为关键支撑位。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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英镑：英国周一走势回软，主要受到房屋数据拖累，最低曾触及1.9757。图表走势所见，英镑于上周突破其下降通道，5天平均线亦为突破10天平均线，当前升势仍有望持续，上望进一步阻力将为1.9900/20，英镑曾于月尾连日受制于此区后出现回落，因此可预期此区具有一定意义。估计进一步阻力则为250天平均线2.0065水平。下方支持则见于5天平均线1.9750水平，关键则可留意10天平均线1.9620水平以及1.95关口。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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日圆：图表指针所见，日圆上周已同时冲破三角型态及信道底部，技术上有望延伸较强升幅。倘若日圆即日仍可企稳于103.50下方，黄金比率计算，38.2%之回弹目标可看至101.90，50%更可看至100.70水平。另外，亦见50天平均线之参考位置为102.50水平。支持位则分别以5天平均线103.65及其突破通道104为较近支撑；关键支撑位仍处于106关口。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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瑞郎：瑞郎方面，周一小幅回软，但估计市场对油价和通膨上升的忧虑将促使投资者寻求避险投资，则会对瑞郎短期走势构成支撑。图表所见，瑞郎上周高位恰好截停于起自3月17日之上升趋向线，可望只要瑞郎更而明确升破50天平均线1.0215水平，瑞郎在技术上将可望延伸另一段升势。以黄金比率计算，50%之反弹水平将为1.0150，61.8%之反弹则为1.0035。关键阻力则会看至1.00关口。支持位则以25天平均线1.0395为关键，上周三低位亦仅于此区寻获支撑，估计较大支持则会看至100天平均线1.0500水平。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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