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fxfishcom 2008-5-22 14:15

富士汇FXfish 2008.5.22操作建议

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图表分析<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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图表分析<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧罗日线图看得，自跌破上升轨后去至1.5270水平获见支撑，令汇价随即展开反弹走势，周三更成功穿破1.5700关口去至1.5780水平，而技术指标RSI9保持上升趋势发展，加上均线逐步汇合上行呈支持，预计后市逐渐完成V字形态<O:P></O:P>
，向上测试1.6000关口位置。<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图上，英镑获见重要支撑1.9340水平下，令汇价出现逆转性快速上涨，并成功上穿保力加中轴触及下降通道部线1.97关口位置，而技术上指标RSI9获见底部支撑呈向好表现，加上各项指标显示仍在上行当中，这意味着汇价相信短期内将会继续上涨，目标测试保力加顶部1.9220位置。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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<V:SHAPE id=_x0000_i1027 style="WIDTH: 222.75pt; HEIGHT: 192.75pt" type="#_x0000_t75"><V:IMAGEDATA o:title="日元" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\Gcict\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image005.jpg"></V:IMAGEDATA><O:LOCK aspectratio="f" v:ext="edit"><IMG class="" height=257 alt="" src="http://newsart.gcict.com/userfiles/image/image003(127).jpg" width=297></O:LOCK></V:SHAPE></TD>
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<IMG class="" height=257 alt="" src="http://newsart.gcict.com/userfiles/image/image004(124).jpg" width=297></TD></TR>
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日线图上，汇价近期于上升趋势遭受延伸阻力线打压下，令汇价一度跌破上升通道，去至103关口边缘附近，而指标RSI9超买区域受阻跌穿中线，以及10-25均线聚集于一点将呈压制，预计后市仍会继续偏向下行走势，目标睇101.30水平<O:P></O:P></TD>
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美元兑瑞士受制于1.0620水平阻力后导致汇价大幅下行，并一度触及上升趋势线支撑1.0270水平位置，同时技术指标RSI9回落至中线下方运行以及均线于汇价上方呈压，故此，相信短期汇价仍需进一步下跌的可能，一旦破位则望前期整理区域1.0040 <O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P></TD>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
周三纽约时段，欧系货币兑美元全线走高，欧元兑美元突破了1.5740关键阻力，上扬至4周来的新高1.5791。英镑兑美元则在下探1.9613后强劲反弹至1.9700上方。商品价格持续走强，引发了美元全线卖盘，进而推高了欧系货币。7月原油期价周三刷新了纪录新高134.10美元/桶，现货金则上涨至4周来的新高932.40美元/盎司。受商品走强带动，澳元兑美元刷新24年新高0.9651，纽元兑美元则反弹至2周来的高点0.7807，美元兑加元创2个月新低0.9818。美联储周三公布了4月29-30日议息会议纪要，该纪要暗示美联储将不再降息，但多数美联储委员认为经济仍存在下行风险，并下调了08年GDP增长预期，市场担忧美国经济增长令美元进一步承压。而美股在会议记要公布后全线暴跌，道指收盘下跌200余点，受累于套息交易平仓，美元兑日元跌破103.00整数水平，创1周来的新低102.95；美元兑瑞郎则跌破了1.0300整数支持，创4周来的新低1.0247。本时段，美元指数则由72.19跌至4周新低71.88，最终收于71.91。关注：北京时间周四16:30英国4月零售销售，17:00欧元区3月工业订单，18:00英国5月CBI工业订单差值，20:30美国5月17日当周初请失业金人数。 </TD></TR>
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昨日价位<O:P></O:P></TD>
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<O:P> </O:P></TD>
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市场展望</TD></TR>
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市场展望<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧元：技术图表所见，欧元已先为突破20天平均线，技术形势已见明显改善；无论RSI以及MACD指标亦见底部回升迹象。黄金比率计算， 61.8%之反弹目标先可看至1.5735水平，进一步阻力则预估为1.58水平，较关键的则会看至1.59关口。支持位则会先参考昨日突破之25天平均线，目前处于1.5605水平，回破此区欧元态势似乎未见稳当，这个状况有机会来自IFO景气指数的意外疲弱所致。较重要支持则预计为10天平均线1.5520水平，同时亦接近于上升趋向线支持位置。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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英镑：图表走势所见，英镑经过近两周之盘整走势后，终在周二突破其下降通道，5天平均线亦为突破10天平均线，当前有望摆脱近期弱势，上望进一步阻力将为20天平均线1.9700及100天平均线1.9760，关键阻力则预计在1.99关口。下方支持则见于1.9630水平，关键则可留意10天平均线1.9545水平。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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日圆：图表指标所见，日圆周二已同时冲破三角型态及通道底部，技术上有望延伸较强升幅。倘若日圆即日仍可企稳于103.50下方，黄金比率计算，38.2%之回弹目标可看至101.90，50%更可看至100.70水平。另外，亦见50天平均线之参考位置为102.30水平。至于未破位前则见日圆仍处于争持阶段，较近支持可望为20天平均线104及100天平均线位置104.50水平；关键支撑位仍在106关口。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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瑞郎：瑞郎兑美元周二小幅上涨，因欧美股市下滑，提升瑞郎的避险投资魅力。瑞郎周二突破区间争持，以前期200点之波动幅度量度，预计延伸涨幅将会看至1.02水平，同时亦为50天平均线位置，估计较重要阻力则为1.00关口。而1.04关口反过来成为较近支撑，回破此区则见争持持续，较近后续支持为100天平均线1.0520水平，关键仍在1.06关口。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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