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fxfishcom 2008-4-28 12:26

富士汇FXfish 2008.4.28操作建议

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图表分析<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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图表分析<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图欧罗看得，自跌破长期上升轨后，因再度遭受均线呈现死亡交叉打压，导致跌势持续加剧，并探至底位支撑1.5555，虽然有所反弹，但幅度有限仍未能摆脱10均线及急速下降轨压力下，而指标RSI9亦见受压见至超卖区，预计后市以反复向下为主，目标测试1.5500关口。<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图上，汇价见1.9690支撑虽然呈大幅反弹，但仍未有效突破下降通道上轴1.9890水平，随后回调至以黄金分割来计算50%-1.9800水平，而技术上25-50均线聚集于一点下行呈压，加上指标MACD于负值水平运行，预料后市下行走势将会持续，目标将测试以黄金分割来计算61.8-1.9765。 <O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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美元兑日元汇价于104.75受阻回落见至强弱分界线102.70后，汇价呈反复回上走势，随即形成V字形态走势，而四小时图分析上看三项均线继续保持上行发展，而指标RSI9获得底部呈支持表现向好，预料后市有望继续以V字形态走势发展，上方目标看105.50位置。<O:P></O:P></TD>
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四小时图上显示，美元兑瑞士自上周三突破三角形态冲高至1.8690水平，后虽见汇价受阻回落至1.0290水平，但下方10均线保持上升趋势发展有效提供汇价支持，加上指标RSI9下跌趋势获得上升轨支持后出现勾头回升迹象，预料后市整固后仍存有上行的需求，目标看1.0530水平位置。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P></TD>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
上周五欧洲股市小幅走强，风险情绪有所改善，提振套息交易信心，美元/日元一度冲破前期反弹高点104.65，触及104.81的高点，美元/瑞郎也突破1.04关口，触及1.0429的高点。美元指数开盘于72.60，基本呈现冲高回落走势，一度触及73.03的四周新高，余后滑落至开盘水平上方附近。非美货币方面，欧元探底回升，总体整理此前跌幅，曾一度失守1.56关口，触及1.5555的低点；英镑则触底反弹，虽然一度跌破1.97关口，触及1.9677的低点，不过最终反弹至1.98关口上方；澳元和纽元受到美元走强和金价走软打压，总体走软。 </TD></TR>
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昨日价位<O:P></O:P></TD>
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<O:P> </O:P></TD>
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市场展望</TD></TR>
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市场展望<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧元：欧元/美元周五欧市开盘于1.5655附近，盘初受到欧洲当地账户打压，一度跌破1.5600关口，引发多头止损和跟风卖盘，下探至1.5555的时段低点。午盘过后再逢低买盘的介入下，汇价逐步回升至1.5620上方整理。技术面，欧元/美元日K线图显示，汇价隔夜大幅下挫，接连跌破多条日均线，5日与10日均线死叉，20日及30日均线基本持平，RSI指标跌至30-40弱势区域，MACD双线零轴上方快速下行，绿柱急剧扩大，KD指标迅速下滑至35-40区域。尽管欧元/美元长期强势格局未变，但是隔夜的大幅下跌宣告了中期上升楔形的结束，预计欧元短线可能继续回调修正走势，初步支撑在时段低点1.5555，其后支撑在布林带下轨所在处1.5480。上方进一步反弹的阻力位于30日均线1.5730，其后阻力在1.58水平，该位是3月24日和4月18日低点连线，跌破后转为支撑，只有重返该位并站稳其上才可重新恢复升势。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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英镑：英镑/美元周五欧市开盘于1.9710，盘初一度跌破1.9700关口，引发多头止损，顺势下探至1.9677的时段低点。随着英国公布第一季度GDP初值和逢低买盘介入，英镑逐渐大幅反弹触及1.9882的时段高点，余后回落至1.9830盘整早盘涨幅。技术面，日图短线走势变得清晰,&nbsp;形态和指标向下,&nbsp;中线强承接位依然1.9600,&nbsp;下破这里中线走势恐将走弱。不过今日在1.9675/85区域再度被强势拉起，如果汇价不能有效突破1.9950/70强压区，可能再度滑落寻求支撑。进一步反弹阻力见于1.9990和1.9950，下方支撑见于1.9680和1.9600。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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日圆：美元/日元周五欧市开盘于104.35，早盘一度上扬突破前期反弹高点104.65，引发空头止损上探至104.81的时段新高，余后逐步滑落至104.25盘整。技术面，美元/日元日K线图显示，汇价依托5日均线强劲上攻，成功突破前期反弹高点104.65。若汇价能够持稳于104.00关口上方，后市有望继续朝105.00关口发起冲击。目前10、20和30日均线系统多头排列，MACD和RSI指标步入强势区域，技术面有利多方。进一步反弹阻力见于105.00和105.50，回撤支撑位于103.00和103.00。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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瑞郎：美元/瑞郎自1.0300整数关口持续反弹，目前汇价上行至1.0380下方涨势停滞。瑞士央行行长罗斯的言论加深了央行将在未来一段时间维持利率不变的观点，因为金融市场的动荡似乎正抵消通胀的上升。瑞士央行未能将瑞郎3个月同业拆借利率降至2.75%的目标水平对瑞士经济是一个不利的因素。有分析师指出，目前市场普遍预期美联储下周降息25基点之后可能结束本轮的降息周期，将重心转移到对抗通胀上面来，这就中期而言有利美元的反弹。同时，有分析师认为，美股正在构筑底部，也支持美元。技术走势上看，美元/瑞郎周五拉出阳十字星，表明多空争夺趋于平衡。RSI指标则显示超买，预示汇价突破上升三角形压力线后，短线存在回测压力线的要求。后市汇价上行阻力见于1.0430和1.0455，下行支撑则位于1.0140和1.0100。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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