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fxfishcom 2008-3-27 09:30

富士汇FXfish 2008.3.27操作建议

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图表分析<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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欧罗于高位1.5910受阻后虽见出现大幅回吐,不过跌幅去至1.5390获得上升轨支持,使汇价作出快速反弹并一度重返至1.5830水平,而技术上三项均线扩散上行将带动汇价支持,加上指标RSI9获得中线支持表现向好,预计后市有机会再趋向上试1.6000-1.6050</TD>
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英镑自获得上升趋势线支撑后,令汇价再次上升突破前期大型反复整理区域,去至2.0090水平,而日线图上,均线逐渐上行汇合将有助提供汇价支持,以指标RSI9同样获得底部支撑突破中线,预计后市再稳固后再度上行的机会较大,目标看2.0200-2.0270<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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美元兑日元跌幅见至底位95.70支撑后虽见有所反弹至101.00关口,不过升势仍未能摆脱下降压力线下,导致汇价再度回落98.90水平,而日线图分析指标RSI9受压呈疲弱走势,另外三项亦继续趋向下行发展,预料美元兑日元短期内仍会持续有下行需求,目标看97.50-97.00</TD>
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美元兑瑞士自跌破下降通道后见至底位0.9620支撑下虽见出现逆转性反弹,但升幅触及通道底线1.0260水平后受阻,导致汇价再度出现回吐,而日线图上,三项均线下行趋势仍见持续,加上RSI9受中值手平压力表现疲弱,由此可见,相信后市下行的机会依然存在,目标测试1.9750-1.9700<O:P></O:P>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
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市场回顾<O:P></O:P>
周三纽约时段，欧系货币兑美元联袂大涨，欧元兑美元维持了稳步上攻走势，一举突破了1.5800整数关口，上探至时段新高1.5857，距纪录高点1.5901仅有一步之遥。英镑兑美元则自时段低点1.9925强劲反弹至2.0100整数水平附近。美国商务部周三公布，美国2月新屋销售月率下降1.8%，折合成年率为59万户，预期为58万户，创13年低位。该数据增强了美联储未来继续降息的预期，引发了美元的持续抛盘。商品价格维持了探底反弹走势，现货金上行至950.00美元/盎司附近，NYMEX原油期价涨至106.00美元/桶上方。得益于商品价格反弹，商品货币澳元和纽元兑美元温和反弹，但美股走软限制了澳元和纽元的涨幅。同时，美元兑日元和瑞郎双双走低，前者徘徊于99.00整数水平附近，后者则跌破了0.9900整数支撑。本时段，美元指数由71.84跌至71.33，日K线收出两连阴。周四焦点，20:30 美国第四季度实际GDP环比年率终值、GDP平减指数终值、核心个人消费支出物价指数终值，美国3月22日当周初请失业金人数。</TD></TR>
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市场展望</TD></TR>
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市场展望<O:P></O:P></TD>
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欧元：日线图显示，欧元/美元周三收出下影长阳，有效突破了延自1.5901形成的下降趋势线，这表明持续一周的调整走势基本宣告结束。同时，汇价突破了1.5901-1.5341跌浪0.618回撤位1.5685，预计后市汇价将顺势挑战历史新高1.5901。另外，汇价回测1.44401.5901升浪的0.382回撤位即强劲反弹，也表明本轮调整仅是牛市中的一次正常的技术修正，若有效上破1.5901，汇价则有可能冲击1.6000整数心理大关。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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英镑：日线图显示，英镑/美元回抽5日均线大幅拉起，日K线收出下影阳线，10、20和100日均线则失而复得，令短线走势否极泰来。同时，汇价突破了2.0395-1.9737跌浪50%回撤位(2.0070)，后市汇价有望顺势向本轮调整的0.382回撤位(2.0150左右)反弹，此位置与200日线基本重合，预计将会汇价上行构成较强压力。后市英镑/美元上方阻力见于2.0110和2.0150，下方支撑则位于1.9950和1.9845。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR>
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日圆：  美元/日元纽约时段开于99.14附近，随后汇价维持小幅震荡上扬走势。午盘，汇价上探至时段新高99.58后掉头下行，尾盘汇价则持续小幅回落，临收盘时汇价下行至99.00整数支撑上方，最终收报于99.150附近。日线图显示，美元/日元跌破了10和5日均线，短线走势转弱，表明20和30日均线空头排列构成的反压较强。短线关键支撑99.00和98.85一线，若有效下破，汇价则可能会跌向98.00寻求支撑。<O:P></O:P>
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瑞郎：美元/瑞郎纽约时段开于0.9966附近，汇价经过一段时间的窄幅盘整后破位下行。午盘，汇价出现快速下跌，自0.9960左右跌至0.9900。尾盘汇价则于0.9900整数水平企稳，之后汇价持续了窄幅盘整走势，并直至收盘。日线图显示，美元/瑞郎跌破了5和10日均线，且击穿了0.9635-1.0249升浪的50%回撤位0.9946，下破该支撑后，短线汇价将测试此轮升势的0.618回撤位0.9875，再失守则将进一步下试0.9780支持位。<O:P></O:P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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